Saturday, July 24, 2010
Currencies: GBP significantly outperformed, followed by the EUR, on stronger data out of Germany and the UK
GBP/USD. In upchannel, but stalled at 1.55
Cable (1.5432) jumped overnight, boosted by a strong GDP report. Spot remains within the uptrending channel since May, but it has also failed to make a new high for six sessions
* Trend: Daily lower; Weekly higher.
* Overbought/Oversold (stochastics): Daily overbought; Weekly neutral.
* Support/Resistance Levels: Resistance lies at 1.5472 (Jul15 high), 1.5524 (Apr15 high), 1.5816 (Feb17 high), 1.6284 (Jan22 high), 1.6458 (Jan19 high), 1.6479 (61.8% retracement of Nov to Dec decline), 1.6722 (Dec 3 high), 1.6878 (Nov16 high) and 1.7043 (Aug high). Support lies at 1.50 (psychological), 1.4949 (Jun12 low), 1.4239 (May19 low) and 1.3503 (Jan’09 low).
* The CFTC, GBP, non-commercial, net-position moderated to -35K, and it has consolidated the past three weeks, consistent with the consolidation of spot just above 1.50 up through Tuesday.
* The risk reversal (3m, 25delta) remained stable overnight and remains near the highs since Feb. While it remains skewed for GBP losses, it is also in the upper end of its six-month range, which suggests an overbought condition.
* Implied Vol (3mo) ticked higher overnight but remains near the low since Jan.
Cross-asset valuation: The significant correlates over the past two months for GBP/USD have been the DXY (negative), EUR/USD (positive), and S&P500 (positive).
USD/CHF. Compressing down on sub-1.05 support
USD/CHF (1.0453) is up overnight but is trading lower intra-day highs and pressing down on the Jul 22 low of 1.0395.
* Trend: daily higher; weekly lower.
* Overbought/Oversold (stochastics): Daily oversold; Weekly neutral.
* Support/Resistance levels: Resistance lies at 1.05 (psychological), 1.0676 (Jul12 high) and 1.1742 (Apr’09 high), while support lies at 1.0395 (Jul22 low) and 1.0131 (Jan low).
* The CFTC non-commercial net position jumped into positive territory (+13K) for the first time since Jan. This is significantly positive for CHF relative to the past six months and could suggest a potential turn higher in USD /CHF, especially with spot stalled around 1.04 support.
* The risk reversal (3m, 25delta) fell overnight despite the rise in spot. It remains near its low since Oct’09. This market segment has abandoned its bullish USD / CHF call, but the skew is very close to a six-month low, suggesting potential for a rally in spot.
* Implied Vol (3mo) is down overnight and cannot seem to rally from multi-year lows.
Cross-asset valuation: USD / CHF has correlated mostly strongly during the past 60 days with EUR/USD (negative) and the USD index (positive).